I received my Ph.D. in Economics from CEMFI in July 2019, working under the supervision of Profs. Nezih Guner and Josep Pijoan-Mas. In September 2020, I joint the Department of Economics at CUNEF Universidad.

I'm a quantitative macroeconomist with research interests in the fields of intergenerational mobility, family economics, and aggregate productivity.

Curriculum vitae: download

Contact: bpetit [at] cunef.edu

Aggregate effects of firing costs with endogenous firm productivity growth

Macroeconomic Dynamics, Volume 27, Issue 4, June 2023, 945–965.
Abstract  Working paper  Slides  Codes  Published article

This paper quantifies the aggregate effects of firing costs in a model of firm dynamics where firm-level productivity is determined by innovation. In the model, the productivity distribution is endogenous, and thus, potentially affected by policy changes, allowing the model to capture both the static (allocative efficiency) and dynamic effects (changes in the distribution of firms' productivity) of firing costs. The model is calibrated to match key features of firms' hiring and firing behavior using firm-level data from Spanish non-financial firms. I show that firing costs equivalent to 2.5 monthly wages produce a 4% loss in aggregate productivity relative to the frictionless economy. The aggregate productivity losses rise to more than 10% when firing costs are equivalent to one year's wage. I show that a model with a standard AR(1) productivity process can only generate between 45 and 50% of these productivity losses. Overall, the results suggest that ignoring the effects of frictions on the dynamics of firms' productivity can substantially underestimate their aggregate effects.

Flattening of the Phillips curve with state-dependent prices and wages

w/ James Costain and Anton Nakov.
The Economic Journal, Volume 132, No. 642, February 2022, 546-581.
Abstract  Working paper  Slides  Codes  Published article

We study monetary transmission in a model of state-dependent prices and wages based on "control costs". Stickiness arises because precise choice is costly: decision-makers tolerate errors both in the timing of adjustments, and in the new level at which the price or wage is set. The model is calibrated to microdata on the size and frequency of price and wage changes. In our simulations, money shocks have less persistent real effects than in the Calvo framework; nonetheless, the model exhibits a substantial degree of non-neutrality, driven mainly by wage rigidity. State-dependent nominal stickiness implies a flatter Phillips curve as trend inflation declines, because price and wage adjustments become less frequent, making short-run inflation less reactive to shocks. Our model can explain almost half of the observed decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since 2000.

Intergenerational persistence in welfare program participation

w/ Javier López Segovia
Abstract  Working paper  Slides  Codes

Participation in social insurance (welfare) programs exhibits a significant persistence across generations. Children of welfare program participants are more likely to participate in these programs when they become adults, even after controlling for their income. This suggests some persistence in some underlying factors that affect the participation decisions of eligible households. While some eligible households in need might choose not to participate, other eligible households in better conditions benefit from welfare programs, limiting the effectiveness of these programs. To understand the source of this persistence and its implications on households and their children, we build a quantitative model overlapping generations with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. In the model, poor households may decide not to receive welfare transfers due to a utility cost from program participation. This cost depends on whether parents of a household had participated in welfare programs. Households also invest money and time in children's skills, which determine their labor-market ability as adults. The model is calibrated to the US data on welfare participation, income inequality, and intergenerational mobility from the 2000s. Using our calibrated model, we study how much of the persistence in welfare participation is due to the cost of participation and how this persistence affects parental investment in children. We find that around 20% of the intergenerational correlation in welfare participation can be explained by the transmission of the welfare culture across generations.

Size-dependent regulations in Spain

w/ Miguel Almunia, Juan F. Jimeno and David López-Rodriguez
Abstract  Working paper  Slides  Codes

This paper studies the interaction effects of multiple size-dependent regulations. Using administrative data for Spanish businesses in the period 2014-19, we investigate the impact of more stringent labor regulations imposed on firms with over 50 employees and of stricter tax monitoring on firms with annual operating revenue exceeding €6 million. We find that firms bunch below each of these cutoffs, especially those that are also subject to the other regulation, suggesting an interaction effect between the two policies. We specify a model of firm dynamics that replicates the patterns observed in the data and we use the model to quantify the aggregate effects of alternative policies that either eliminate each regulation or generalize them to all firms. We find that regulations lead to lower aggregate output and increase the relative weight of small firms in terms of employment and revenues. However, regulations have a positive effect on aggregate TFP compared to an economy without regulations where firms can misreport their revenues. This is because the possibility of misreporting creates a tax wedge, pushing firms' input demand above the optimum level.

Intergenerational effects of child-related tax benefits in the US

Abstract  Working paper  Slides  Codes

The presence of children in US households reduces tax liabilities through deductions and tax credits. Through the lens of the quantity-quality trade-off, these benefits distort parental choices over the number and human capital of children by altering their relative implicit price. This paper quantifies the effects of child-related tax benefits on fertility and intergenerational mobility using a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous fertility choices and parental investments in children's human capital, calibrated to US data. I show that tax benefits increase fertility by 16%, but they do so at the expense of lowering human capital of children. More importantly, these effects are particularly strong among low educated mothers, which widens the gap in human capital between children of low and high educated mothers. As a result, the intergenerational persistence of education increases by 37% when tax benefits are introduced. I also show that education subsidies are also effective at fostering fertility but, as opposed to tax benefits, they do not decrease children's human capital, nor intergenerational mobility.

Courses taught at CUNEF Universidad (undergraduate courses):

• Monetary and banking economics  —  2023
• Macroeconomics  —  2020, 2021, 2022, 2023
• Bachelor's thesis  —  2022

Courses taught at CEMFI (graduate courses):

• Macroeconomics II (TA to R. Anton Braun)  —  2019
• Quantitative Methods (TA to E. Moral-Benito)  —  2017, 2018, 2019
• Macroeconomics I (TA to J. Pijoan-Mas)  —  2015, 2016

External consultant at AIReF (2022)
Project: Evaluation of the Spanish Minimum Income Scheme (Ingreso Mínimo Vital).

Analyst at AIReF (09/2019 – 08/2020)
Project: Evaluation of tax benefits in Spanish income taxes.